Originally posted @ 12:14 am, Fri 14th Jan 2011
Already, ideas that the Lib Dems could not have won Oldham East and Saddleworth have been ventured.
But why not?
This by-election came from their candidate winning an argument in court (twice) that the Labour candidate had lied about him and so they lost a seat by just over 100 votes.
And there is a new dimension here. A potential to win swing votes from Conservatives who acknowledge at least that their party is in power cos the Lib Dems helped them.
Their national reputation was built up by a track record of winning by-elections (sometimes against significant odds), using these kind of arguments.
Having been to Oldham during the day, maybe the key reason they couldn't do so well is reflected in the lack of the usual complaints I hear about Lib Dem literature. The higher standard expected in election literature hurts the Lib Dems.
At times it was wet today and at others cloud descended over the constituency. (So a turnout of 48% in a by-election on an old register seems respectable.)
There were more people to talk to during the day, but conscious that people had been contacted a lot, conservations were kept short.
But we did meet a staff nurse complaining about the new pressures on nurses and of people waiting 16 hours in A&E, the 4 hour expectation having been lost. If someone as authoritative as her has been telling people how bad the ConDems are (when I sensed she hadn't voted Labour last May), then maybe the reason for LibDems not winning a by-election has been much more straightforward.
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And winning with a majority larger than any we've had since and including 1997 (on a by-election turnout) is a good result.
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