Originally posted @ 5:46 pm, Fri 17th Oct 2008
Having enjoyed the TV series “The West Wing”, there was a sense that the programme had been prophetic, culminating with a contest for President between a long-established and regarded Republican, against a non-white Democrat.
And given the series often benefitted from off-the-record tips from politicians, there was to be some expectancy of accuracy. But the parallel between that contest and the race between McCain and Obama seemed spooky. Even to the extent of a major crisis (in fiction, a nuclear power station accident; in reality, the credit crunch) changing the nature of the contest. And a persistent turmoil within the Republicans as to whether to try to reach all, or to just shout out to their base.
But for some while now, the parallel has been lost.
McCain has not turned out to be such a shining light for an informed or modern conservatism.
Obama has been leading by a significant margin and many of the states have settled in Obama’s column. See “Real Clear Politics” which has extensive coverage on the election and a map which is very useful.
And the television debates – in the TV series, gripping and entertaining, acted out as live with short & pithy exchanges – in reality, have been dull and had little impact, except to affirm and extend Obama’s lead.
With such a wealth of analysis available, some of the British journalism has been disappointing.
The latest of these was an almost superstitious analysis in the Guardian that because Obama holds such a significant lead, he’s going to lose.
And whilst it’s true that a front-runner’s strategy towards the end of the election might be to play safe in a way that courts the loss of momentum or enthusiasm, the superstition extends further to that of the public won’t vote for a non-white and won’t tell the pollsters about their real intentions.
In fact, the truth about Americans is that they are much more experienced in voting for black representatives than they can be given credit for.
This has been described by one analyst in an excellent article as “a theory in search of data”.
Another article in the Guardian gave all kinds of warnings as to how the now notorious Sarah Palin should not attend the start of an ice hockey match. She attended, but more than coped with the heckling. Much more interesting to read an article on Sarah Palin’s political past published in the New Republic magazine.
OK, I enjoy the knockabout too, such as John Cleese’s video blog entry.
And yes, I dearly want Obama to win.
A couple of years ago, I helped DEFRA by speaking to American Councilmen from the South at a climate change event in Chicago. The lack of progress or hope, because of the Bush administration, is my lasting memory.
And yes, it’s not over.
But for now, the map makes great reading.
Comments